In the first half of 2025. China's chemical market presented a complex and differentiated landscape, driven by a complex interplay of factors. From the polyester industry chain to sub-sectors like titanium dioxide and epoxy resin, price fluctuations continued the supply-demand imbalance seen in 2024. while geopolitical factors, collapsing costs, and policy adjustments introduced new variables. Data shows that prices of products such as indoor polyester, bisphenol A, and TMA experienced a sharp correction, falling by over 20%. Meanwhile, prices of epichlorohydrin and solid epoxy resin bucked the trend, driven by cost pressures and burgeoning demand. The following details the situation.
1. Neopentyl Glycol
In the first half of 2025. China's neopentyl glycol (NPG) market experienced significant volatility. Prices climbed from 10.658 yuan/ton in January to a high of 11.731 yuan/ton in April before plummeting sharply, reaching a low of 8.810 yuan/ton in June. Overall, the market experienced a three-stage trend: peaking, plummeting, and stabilizing. This dramatic shift reflects the dual impact of supply-demand mismatch and collapsing costs, accelerating the restructuring of the industry's competitive landscape.
From January to April, prices rose by a cumulative 10.1%, reaching a peak of 11.731 yuan/ton in April. Unexpected shutdowns at facilities such as BASF-Yangtze and Binzhou Zhanhua Yukai led to tight spot supply, sending domestic hydrogenation products soaring to 12.000 yuan/ton, a two-year high.
Prices of the raw material isobutyraldehyde also climbed (the average price in the East China market rose 18% year-on-year in April). Combined with stockpiling demand from the polyester resin industry, this created a dual driver of cost and demand.
Prices plummeted 16.1% in May (from 11.731 to 9.868 yuan/ton), and continued their downward trend in June, reaching 8.810 yuan/ton, a 24.9% drop from the peak. Disproportionation-based products in East China even broke through the 9.000 yuan/ton mark, reaching a low of 8.600 yuan/ton, approaching the cost level of 8.500 yuan/ton.
2. PTA
In the first half of 2025. the market price of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) showed a clear trend of "first falling, then rising." Influenced by multiple factors, including crude oil price fluctuations, supply-demand imbalances, and macroeconomic policies, prices fluctuated by 12% (from 4.990.79 yuan/ton in January to a low of 4.439 yuan/ton in April, before rebounding to 5.004.2 yuan/ton in June).
In January, PTA prices briefly surged to 5.033.95 yuan/ton due to geopolitical factors driving up oil prices. However, weak demand around the Spring Festival and a crude oil price correction led to three consecutive months of decline, reaching a four-year low of 4.439 yuan/ton in April. This period was primarily due to lower-than-expected end-use polyester demand, intensified Sino-US trade frictions, and ample PX supply.
Prices rebounded by over 10% from May to June, primarily due to stronger PX prices, supported by expectations of OPEC+ production cuts and the summer peak demand season. Furthermore, concentrated maintenance of domestic PTA plants reduced social inventories, leading to a short-term improvement in supply and demand. However, the strength of the rebound was limited by high inventory levels in the polyester industry and persistently low processing fees (300-350 yuan/ton).
3. TGIC
In the first half of 2025. the Chinese TGIC (triglycidyl isocyanurate) curing agent market experienced a volatile pattern. Prices rose slightly from 24.500 yuan/ton in January to a high of 25.000 yuan/ton in March before declining, closing at 25.000 yuan/ton in June, with an overall fluctuation of only 500 yuan. Compared with the high prices of electronic-grade TGIC (average price exceeding 40.000 yuan/ton) during the same period, industrial-grade TGIC prices remained relatively stable due to lagging cost transmission and diverging demand from downstream polyester resins.
4. TMA
In the first half of 2025. the trimellitic anhydride (TMA) market experienced a dramatic price plunge, plummeting from 50.000 yuan/ton in January to 19.950 yuan/ton in June, a 60% drop, reaching its lowest level in nearly five years. This trend completely reverses the surge in prices triggered by global supply shortages in 2024. exposing an industry dilemma plagued by a combination of supply-demand mismatch, collapsing costs, and policy risks.
At the beginning of the year, prices remained at a historically high 50.000 yuan/ton, continuing the tight supply situation caused by the 2024 closure of 70.000 tons of INEOS production capacity in the United States. However, downstream resistance has begun to build.
Demand for TMA's main downstream products, powder coatings and PVC plasticizers, is strongly correlated with real estate. New construction area in 2025 declined by 23% year-on-year, directly leading to a sharp drop in procurement volume.
The EU imposed a 15% anti-dumping duty on Chinese TMA, resulting in a 37% year-on-year decline in exports in the first five months of the year. Emerging markets such as Malaysia have been unable to fill the gap.
The price of the raw material trimethylbenzene fluctuates with crude oil, falling by 28% in the first half of 2025. weakening TMA's cost support.
5. Outdoor Polyester
In the first half of 2025. China's outdoor polyester market exhibited a unilateral downward trend, with prices gradually declining from 11.000 yuan/ton in January to 10.200 yuan/ton in June, a cumulative drop of 7.3%. This trend is consistent with the overall weakness of the polyester industry chain, primarily driven by geopolitical factors, cost fluctuations, and weak downstream demand.
6. Indoor Polyester
In the first half of 2025. China's indoor polyester market exhibited a unilateral downward trend, with prices continuously declining from 14.000 yuan/ton in January to 11.000 yuan/ton in June, a cumulative drop of 21.4%, the largest drop in the same period in the past three years. Industry analysts indicate that this trend is primarily driven by the triple pressures of weak end-user demand, insufficient cost support, and capacity expansion.
The average price of PTA remained low at 4.800-5.600 yuan/ton in the second quarter. Other raw materials were also affected by the easing crude oil supply, making it difficult to boost polyester costs.
7. Epichlorohydrin
In the first half of 2025. the Chinese epichlorohydrin (ECH) market experienced a fluctuating trend of "rising first, then falling, and then rising again," with prices fluctuating from 8.876.32 yuan/ton in January to 9.592.5 yuan/ton in June. This trend contrasts sharply with the continued slump in 2024 (a 1.7% decrease for the entire year), reflecting the dual drivers of soaring raw material costs and growing demand in emerging sectors.
The downstream epoxy resin industry showed mixed performance, with solid resin prices rebounding to 13.000 yuan/ton in June, driving marginal improvements in ECH demand.
8. Bisphenol A
In the first half of 2025. the bisphenol A market continued its downward trend from 2024. with prices falling from 9.484.21 yuan/ton in January to 8.405 yuan/ton in June, a cumulative decline of 11.4%, reaching a three-year low. This trend is driven by the multiple impacts of intensified supply-demand imbalances, high cost pressures, and an overall weakening supply chain.
In the first half of 2025. domestic bisphenol A production capacity increased by 12% year-on-year, while downstream PC and epoxy resin demand grew by only 3%. This supply-demand imbalance led manufacturers to strongly reduce prices and shipments.
In June, the average industry operating rate fell to 65%, but inventories remained high. Some companies reduced inventory through maintenance (such as the centralized maintenance of East China factories at the end of March).
Prices of raw materials, benzene and phenolic ketone, rose by 15% in the first half of the year, while bisphenol A prices fell by 11%. Industry losses widened from 603 yuan/ton in January to over 1.000 yuan/ton in June.
Integrated enterprises (such as Lihuayi) are barely maintaining profits through industry chain collaboration, while small and medium-sized factories face a survival crisis.
The epoxy resin and PC industries, dragged down by the sluggish end-user home appliance and automotive markets, saw operating rates drop by 16% and 8%, respectively, in June, with purchases of bisphenol A remaining limited to essential needs.
The export market, constrained by trade barriers, saw a 20% year-on-year decrease.
9. Solid Epoxy Resin
In the first half of 2025. China's solid epoxy resin market experienced a fluctuating trend of "rising first, then falling, and then recovering." Prices fluctuated from 12.600 yuan/ton in January to 13.000 yuan/ton in June, an overall increase of 3.2%. Compared to the strong performance of liquid epoxy resin, solid resin prices saw relatively modest growth, dragged down by the sluggish downstream coatings industry. However, demand from emerging sectors such as wind power supported the market's recovery at the end of the second quarter.
10. Rutile Titanium Dioxide
In the first half of 2025. China's rutile titanium dioxide market experienced a "surge and then decline" trend. Prices climbed from 14.244 yuan/ton in January to a high of 14.863 yuan/ton in April before rapidly falling back to close at 13.825 yuan/ton at the end of June, a 3.0% decrease from the beginning of the year. Industry analysis shows that this fluctuation was primarily driven by the dual impact of raw material costs and weak downstream demand, leading to a continued deepening of market supply and demand imbalances.
With weakening support from the raw material side, the price of titanium concentrate from small and medium-sized Panzhihua mines fell by 270 yuan/ton at the end of June compared to the beginning of the year, and sulfuric acid prices fell by 166 yuan/ton in the second quarter, partially easing cost pressures.
11. Summary
In the first half of 2025. China's chemical market, squeezed by the triple pressures of "collapsing costs, weak demand, and overcapacity," underwent a profound adjustment, from rapid growth to drastic decline, and from divergence to convergence. Whether it's the 60% cliff-like drop in TMA or the 15% counter-trend rise in epichlorohydrin, both reflect the pain the industry is experiencing during the period of retreating globalization and accelerating green transformation. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, with the gradual release of new production capacity and marginal improvement in terminal demand, some products may usher in a window of recovery, but the contradiction between structural overcapacity and intensified trade barriers will continue. Finding a balance between cost fluctuations and demand upgrades will be the key for chemical companies to break through the cyclical dilemma.
